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Welcome to The Skate – Frozen Four Predictions
The road to the Frozen Four – “The Skate” rather than The Dance – starts in about 45 minutes. 4 Regions, 4 teams each. 5 Conference Champions, 11 at-large berths. 1 Championship.
Miami begins in the Midwest Regional in Toledo, OH tomorrow, as we’ve already previewed. And previewed again… But what about those other teams in the Midwest? And who else is in this thing anyways? Let’s break it down and give you our 2013 Frozen Four predictions in the process.
Midwest Regional
Toledo, Ohio; Saturday/Sunday
Teams: Notre Dame, Miami, Minnesota State, St. Cloud State
Congratulations for winning the CCHA Tournament Championship, Notre Dame! You now get to face the WCHA Regular Season co-champion St. Cloud State Huskies! St. Cloud isn’t exactly on fire, however, having gone 8-5 since February. Notre Dame comes in having won 6 in a row, and is unbeaten in their last 9, with the two non-victories being a split of shootouts against Western Michigan.
Everyone has said it already, and we’ll repeat it here. This regional is wide open. There is so much parity in college hockey, and these two CCHA vs WCHA matchups could provide some of the best drama in the first 2 rounds of the tournament.
Predictions:
Alex, Doug: Notre Dame
Mike: St. Cloud
East Regional
Providence, Rhode Island; Friday/Saturday
Teams: Quinnipiac, Boston College, Union, Canisius
The Quinnipiac Bobcats went ballistic in the middle of the season. They ran off 21 straight games without a loss. However, to finish, they only went 6-3-1, unlike last year’s Boston College team that won 74 games in a row and rolled to the championship. After their 3-2 loss to Cornell in the ECAC tournament, they came back and won 10-0 the next night. The Cats can score, that’s for certain and they should have no problem with Canisius.
The other matchup is the intriguing one, as 2 of last year’s Frozen Four teams face off. Union is another team that is firing on all cylinders lately. They are 8-2 in their last 10 and won the ECAC Tournament. BC is… well… BC. They just win. All the time. And it gets old. One of these days Jerry York will retire and they’ll go away for a bit. However, he hasn’t retired yet.
Predictions:
Alex, Mike, Doug: Boston College
Northeast Regional
Manchester, New Hampshire; Friday/Saturday
Teams: UMass-Lowell, New Hampshire, Denver, Wisconsin
UNH and Denver will square off, but it won’t matter here. It might be an interesting game, but the real draw is the UM-L and Wisconsin matchup. We may be overlooking this one, but UNH backed in to the tournament and brought Denver with them. Sure, they had nice seasons, but really didn’t impress throughout the second half of each’s season and both lost in the first round of their conference tournaments.
On the other hand, Wisconsin is doing what teams like Miami, Quinnipiac and Minnesota wish they had been doing: fighting like hell to get into the tournament. Now, they’ve won the WCHA tournament and are another team that is playing great at the right time.
Lowell is playing like crazy and earned their first ever #1 seed in the tournament. They started the season 2-5-1, but then in their last 30 games went a measly 24-5-1. They are also 12-1 in their last 13 games. They remind me a lot of Boston College last year: big, fast, determined. Their hurdle here should be beating Wisconsin. Someone’s got to win this clash of the titans.
Predictions:
Alex, Doug: UMass-Lowell
Mike: Wisconsin
West Regional
Grand Rapids, Michigan; Saturday/Sunday
Teams: Minnesota, North Dakota, Niagara, Yale
Okay…so the committee wanted to see a Minnesota vs North Dakota Regional Final. Can you blame them? I certainly cannot. Their games are always slug fests and we could be set up for another titanic struggle on Sunday. While they shouldn’t look past their opponents on Saturday, I think we can bank on a WCHA entrant to the Frozen Four from this region.
Yale comes in having been shut out in each of their last 2 games – to Union in the Semifinals and then Quinnipiac in the consolation game of the ECAC tournament. Yale could pose a threat, but Minnesota’s depth, size and speed will over power them. Much of the same should be expected for North Dakota.
We won’t take anything away from Niagara’s fantastic season. They are the first ever Atlantic Hockey team to make the tournament as an at-large bid, but are just 2-2 in their last 4. North Dakota is worse, having gone 2-3 in their last 5. However, North Dakota has the firepower that should get them at least to the regional final.
Predictions:
Alex, Mike, Doug: Minnesota
And to recap, here’s our overall Frozen Four picks (we’ll preview the actual 4 teams in 2 weeks) and championship predictions:
Alex: BC, Notre Dame, UM-L, Minnesota; BC over Minnesota for the title (BC apologist)
Mike: BC, SCSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota; BC over Minnesota for the title (BC apologist)
Doug: BC, Notre Dame, UM-L, Minnesota; Lowell over ND for the title
As you can see, I am the only sane person of the 3 Warriors that didn’t pick BC to win it all.
In any event, enjoy the games, everyone. They start RIGHT NOW!
Go RedHawks!
Miami vs. Minnesota State – Another take
The road to the Frozen Four in Pittsburgh
begins this weekend for 16 NCAA teams.
This Saturday, Miami’s NCAA tournament run takes a trip through Toledo, Ohio, as the RedHawks take on the Minnesota State Mavericks. There are some interesting storylines that my co-blogger redhawk95 laid out for you: Miami can’t win the big games and a “one and done” is forthcoming. Well fear not, RedHawks. I think Rico Blasi and the youngest Miami team in decades have more going for them this weekend than previously expressed.
Let’s start with Minnesota State. When I sat down to write this piece (admittedly for the last 3 days), I couldn’t help but let thoughts run through my head like “they only went 16-11 in WCHA play” “they allowed 95 goals this year” and “they just lost 7-2 to Wisconsin!” But then I look at their season and they did win some considerable games. Minnesota twice, North Dakota, at Wisconsin twice. However, my clinching statistic is this. MSU was only 13-13-1 against TUCs this year and went 5-9 against tournament teams in 2013. Against the better teams, they haven’t produced the results.
Consider that Minnesota State hasn’t been to “the skate” (my hockey version of “the dance”) since 2003. 10 years. The student athletes playing on this team almost assuredly didn’t know they were even going to attend Minnesota State when that happened. Can they score goals? Sure. They certainly can, and are 10th in the country in scoring at 3.17 goals per game. That’s a lot of scoring, but as I look back to the games I saw (on TV) featuring WCHA teams, they all allowed a lot of goals over the course of the season. 6 of the top 11 schools in the country in scoring margin hail from the WCHA. What does that tell me? Goaltending in the WCHA is suspect. With Miami’s snipers like Riley Barber, Austin Czarnik, Alex Wideman, Curtis McKenzie and Cody Murphy, I think we can get some pucks past Mavericks Freshman Goalie Stephon Williams.
Speaking of Williams, much like Miami freshman netminder Ryan McKay, he was also pulled in Minnesota State’s 7-2 loss to Wisconsin to finish their conference tournament run. Both goalies got wake up calls. It will be interesting to see how they come back this weekend. That is, if McKay gets the start instead of Williams. If he does, and MSU’s Williams gets the nod as well, we might just see a 1-0 3OT thriller in Toledo if they both decide to stand on their heads for the night.
Alright, now to present the case for the RedHawks. I will admit, it’s not an open and shut case. Miami just lost 6-2 to Michigan, are just 7-5 in their last dozen games including losses to 2 bottom feeders this year (Michigan State, Michigan) and sometimes forget to show up to games (7 shutouts). However, this Warrior hasn’t given up hope entirely. Here are some points to consider.
First, Miami has been here before. This is the 8th year in a row Miami has been in the tournament. In the last 8 years, MSU (1st appearance in last 8), St. Cloud (4th) and Notre Dame (5th) have been in the tournament 10 times total. None of these teams were in the tournament last year when Miami was bounced by UMass-Lowell.
Next, let’s look back at that scoring stat. Sure, MSU is 10th in the country in scoring. But if you look at scoring margin, they’ve only outscored their opponents by 0.8 goals a game. Hmm. Interesting. That number sounds familiar … Oh look. Miami’s scoring margin is … 0.8 goals per game. Sure Miami has scored just 101 goals to Minnesota State’s 127, but on the defensive side of the puck, Miami has only allowed 69 goals against all season. The defense is there. The goaltending is there (I could write an entire other article on McKay vs. Williams for this weekend’s start, but either will be fine with me).
Finally, you might say that Miami hasn’t exactly had the best of runs in previous tournaments, but in the last 8 seasons, Rico Blasi and company are 7-7 in the tournament. Find me a team that hasn’t won the whole thing, but has won 7 NCAA tournament games in the last 7 years. I’m not sure there is another one out there. Miami can and has won big games on this stage in the past. In this stretch, Miami has won the CCHA tournament, and has made 2 Frozen Fours. That is impressive and in this supposed year of “rebuiding,” don’t be surprised if Miami puts it together and wins a few games.
Well there you have it. The case for Miami to win a couple games. I’m not going to come out and say they will make it to Pittsburgh with 2 wins this weekend. They have to get through MSU first, and then either the CCHA Tournament Champion or the WCHA Regular Season Champion to get there. But in a wide open tournament, the Midwest regional in Toledo is possibly the most wide open foursome of teams and any of them can make it to Pittsburgh. Why not Miami?
CCHA Awards Night
In the grand scheme of things, tonight doesn’t mean much. However, as the last season of the CCHA draws to a close, Miami has a lot of hardware on the line this evening. Tonight is the CCHA Awards Show (tickets are still available), and with a player/coach nominated in each of the categories, Miami could haul home some nice individual honors. Every person involved with the team will tell you the same, that tonight’s awards are team awards, or tonight’s awards don’t mean anything if the Hawks don’t get it done ON the ice in the next 4 weeks. Here’s our take on how tonight will go down.
Going the Distance – Game 3 tonight
After Friday night, there was some panic around Oxford in regards to the Miami Hockey program after being shut out by the 11th seeded Spartans in game 1. “Was the whole season a waste?” “Was the regular season a fluke?” “Why did a team with such firepower get shutout 7 times this year?”
Well, I think Enrico Blasi and the RedHawks turned all of those doubts into more hope for this young team with a 4-1 victory that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated last night. Let’s take a look at the two nights’ work.
On Friday, Michigan State came out firing with their first goal at 8:04 of the night. Miami couldn’t counter punch at all. A usually stout Austin Czarnik was just 5 for 21 in the faceoff circle, and Miami’s scoring chances were minimal. Ryan McKay stopped 21 of 24 shots on the night, but on the other end, Freshman Jake Hildebrand blocked all 34 shots Miami fired at him and MSU skated away with the shutout win.
Turn the page to Saturday night, and we saw the team that has been in the top 10 for the entire season, currently stands as the #3 team in the land and the team that is second in the country in scoring defense at 1.63 Goals per game.
To start the game, Miami wasn’t messing around. Senior Captain Steven Spinell, having not played entirely up to his potential over the last several weeks, decided to set the tone. The very first time MSU tried to cross the red line at center ice, Spinell laid out MSU’s Kevin Walrod. In the post-game press conference, Spinell said he “saw the opportunity and took it to send a message and set the tone for our team. We’re here to battle, and that was our focus.” (courtesy: Rick Cassano, Hamilton Journal-News) Spinell took a 2 minute penalty for and Indirect contact to the head – elbowing infraction, but the tone was set.
Last night, Miami held Michigan State to just 4 shots in the first period, 5 in the second and 8 in the third. Unfortunately, scoring chances isn’t an official stat, but I’d venture a guess that Miami had around 17 scoring chances compared to those 17 actual shots by Michigan State. In the second period alone, Miami outshot MSU 20-5 and really made the game look like it was theirs without question.
Once again, Blasi pulled the right strings and added some extra strokes to his masterpiece of a season. Blasi took Blake Coleman out of the game as a healthy scratch and inserted Bryon Paulazzo seemingly on a whim. To make the lines fit, he also dropped Cody Murphy down to the fourth line. Murphy was centered by Max Cook and also had Jimmy Mullin on his line for the night. Murphy had a goal and an assist, and Mullin scored the first Miami goal of the series that really turned the momentum in favor of the Hawks.
Miami was clearly the better team, and after Mullin opened the scoring, the rout was on. Austin Czarnik scored the game winning goal – his NCAA leading 4th shorthanded goal – off of a fantastic effort from Riley Barber, and Miami never looked back. In all, 4 RedHawks had multi-point nights: Czarnik would add a second goal in the 3rd period, Matthew Caito (team high 6 shots) and Barber had 2 helpers each, and Murphy had his spectacular goal and added an assist to go along with his 4 shots on the night.
Tonight, we find out if the momentum gained in the first period of Saturday’s game will carry into Sunday’s deciding game 3. If Miami can win, they will head to The Joe and will face the hottest team in the NCAA in Michigan (7-0-1 in their last 8). If MSU wins, Miami still likely has a #1 seed wrapped up, but will not have the opportunity to win the final CCHA Tournament Championship in Detroit next weekend.
Tickets are still available for tonight’s game. Tickets are $3 for students and $18-23 otherwise. Puck drop is at 7:05 once again, and the game can be seen in HD on Miami All-Access.
Senior Night, with the CCHA title on the line
After last night’s disappointing result, Miami takes to the ice tonight in what will certainly be an emotional night no matter what the outcome. Tonight, we say goodbye to 6 seniors who will move on to the pro ranks, possibly even the NHL ranks, and others will become working men like many of us. Let’s take a look back at their time as RedHawks. (photos courtesy of http://www.muredhawks.com)
On the brink: Miami takes on OSU for the CCHA Championship
Miami faces OSU with the final CCHA
Championship just 2 points away.
Miami’s long road to the last-ever CCHA Championship didn’t come without struggles, growing pains and scoring droughts. However, this group of 26 student-athletes is on the brink of the 4th ever CCHA Regular Season Championship in Miami Ice Hockey History. We haven’t been huge on weekend previews this season, so why start now? Take a look at Rick Cassano’s preview, as well as the Official Miami Hockey preview for those. Here’s a recap of an action packed last week of February as we look forward to a possible celebration in Oxford. Read the rest of this entry
Analysis: Miami stands a strong #3 in PairWise
The march to Pittsburgh is nearly upon us.
When we were looking at the PairWise back in December, it didn’t really make sense. Now, however, it’s very meaningful. Let’s take a look at what’s happening keeping travel in mind. First, there are 2 regionals that Miami would love to be at: Toledo and Grand Rapids. Light travel, meaning no big trips out east to play eastern teams that are hosting, even when Miami is a #1 seed (UNH, 2011). And secondly, Miami could end up staying within 302 miles of Oxford (Grand Rapids: 298 mile drive, Pittsburgh, 302 mile drive) from the CCHA tournament through the Frozen Four if things happen to fall correctly. It’s certainly not a lock, and there’s a long way to go, but let’s take a deeper look at the current PairWise.
RedHawks announce commemorative jersey for Hockey City Classic
Tonight, Miami unveiled their uniform for the 2013 Hockey City Classic, and it’s like nothing you’ve ever seen from the RedHawks. Or maybe it’s a combination of a lot of what you’ve seen in the past from them? Either way, I can’t say they are the prettiest jerseys I’ve ever seen, but they do look pretty darn special.
Here’s Miami’s release on the new jersey design, with Steven Spinell showing off the new unis. Spinell is a Chicago-born and raised kid, who will certainly relish this weekend’s game against Notre Dame in Soldier Field.
Weekend Recap
Miami leads the chase for the CCHA
Regular Season title with 3 weeks remaining.
The RedHawks swapped shutouts with Western Michigan over the weekend, but that wasn’t the only NCAA hockey action. It was quite a week in the world of NCAA hockey, and the upcoming weekend will certainly be much more significant for Miami.
We’ll recap the weekend notes after the jump, but before you go on, take a quick read through Rick Cassano’s previews of next weekend. He has insights on what several RedHawks did growing up on outdoor rinks, as well as how the entire Hockey City Classic came to be for Miami. If those don’t get you fired up for next weekend, I don’t know what will. Perhaps a weekend series against the Irish in what will be a determining weekend for the final CCHA regular season championship? Or maybe it won’t be until you are driving into Chicago next weekend. In any event, (Friday and) Sunday can’t get here fast enough.
On to the recap of last week – it was an up and down weekend, that’s for sure…
Recap: Hawks cool off Alaska, head to Western Michigan
Light the Lantern!
RedHawks sweep again!
Before we recap the week, we remember Brendan Burke. Burkie died 3 years ago today (February 5, 2010). Each and every RedHawk, including those freshmen who didn’t know him miss him like a brother. His legacy will live on in Oxford and throughout hockey and sports through the You Can Play project. We encourage you to support You Can Play at http://www.youcanplayproject.org, and always remember Brendan as an important part of The Brotherhood.
For the second week in a row, Miami has swept their opponent out of Oxford, this time sending the Alaska Nanooks back to Fairbanks significantly cooler than they were coming in. The 2 wins snapped a 6 game win streak for the Nanooks, who fell back out of the polls, but still remain as a TUC in the PairWise – a good thing for Enrico Blasi’s talented young squad. Here’s what you missed so far this week.
